Artifact Релиз 28 ноября

Since Valve updated the ArtiFAQ today, I wanted to discuss the possibility of going infinite and maybe even build a collection out of the base game for only $20.

I'll be talking mostly about expert constructed and phantom draft, since keeper draft is by nature for people that are already experienced and willing to gamble more money. If you are a "F2P" player you won't want to do keeper drafts at first because you will hurt your decks trying to build your collection and lower your winrate.

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Event Tickets are sold in bundles of five for $4.95, so $1 per gauntlet and you start with 5 when you buy the game.
Packs are sold for $1.99 each.

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1 Ticket Entry (Expert Constructed & Phantom Draft):

3 Wins: 1 Event Ticket

4 Wins: 1 Event Ticket, 1 Pack

5 Wins: 1 Event Ticket, 2 Packs

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Possible outcomes:
3-2 = 60% winrate and $1 prize.
4-2 = 66.7% winrate and $3 prize.
5-1 or 5-0 = 83.3%+ winrate and $5 prize.

60% WR = 0% profit (break even)
66.7% WR = 200% profit
83.3%+ WR = 400% profit

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As you can see there's a huge gap between prizes from 3 to 4 wins. From 0% profit to 200% profit by just increasing 6.7% winrate. And that should be your goal. Averaging 3-4 wins per gauntlet will allow you to play competitively as much as you want and maybe even be lucrative with it.

At some point you will run out of the 5 initial tickets so you will have to sell some cards you earned until you can buy a new bundle of 5 for $4.95.

If we look at the value of the pack based on a market perspective, depending on how the prices settle and luck of course, we might look at $1 per pack or something like that. That means you need to get 5 packs before losing your 5 initial tickets to be able to sell cards and buy more tickets. How hard will that be?

Using market value of $1 each pack:
60% WR = 0% profit (break even)
66.7% WR = 100% profit
83.3%+ WR = 200% profit

That will heavily depend on the consistency of your runs. You can only have 5 gauntlets with <50% winrate before getting 5 packs.

Avg. winner: 33% of the runs are losses
5 gauntlets going 0-2 to 2-2 = -5 tickets
6 gauntlets going 3-2 = 0 tickets 0 packs
3 gauntlets going 4-2 = +3 packs
1 gauntlet going 5-1 to 5-0 = +2 packs

Total 35-29 to 45-28 = 54.7% to 61.6% winrate, 0% profit

Above avg. winner: 26.3% of the runs are losses
5 gauntlets going 0-2 to 2-2 = -5 tickets
8 gauntlets going 3-2 = 0 tickets 0 packs
4 gauntlets going 4-2 = +4 packs
2 gauntlet going 5-1 to 5-0 = +4 packs

Total 50-36 to 60-34 = 58.1% to 63.8% winrate, 60% profit

Pro level winner: 21.7% of the runs are losses
5 gauntlets going 0-2 to 2-2 = -5 tickets
10 gauntlets going 3-2 = 0 tickets 0 packs
5 gauntlets going 4-2 = +5 packs
3 gauntlets going 5-1 to 5-0 = +6 packs

Total 65-43 to 75-40 = 60.2% to 65.2% winrate, 120% profit

Conclusions / TL;DR
Since getting 0-2, 1-2 and 2-2 means the same -1 ticket result, you can break even with as low as 50% winrate (with five 0-2's and five 4-2's)
3-2 results doesn't matter in the long run, they will only push your winrate towards 60% for breaking even (you can have 1000 3-2's between 5 losses and 5 4-2's and still break even with ~60% winrate)
The only results that matter are 4-2's and 5-1's or 5-0's. The difference between the average, good and pro player will be the amount of these results compared to the amount of losses.

You can play gauntlet forever without paying any extra money even with 54.7% winrate as long as you are CONSISTENT with your results.

You can obtain BIG PROFITS by reaching a consistent 60%+ winrate and easily build a collection off that if you enjoy grinding.

What are your thoughts? Are you still worried about the game not being F2P friendly? Does 60% WR for profits seem fair to you? Let's discuss.

And of course, feel free to say how dumb I am and how messed up my logic is, because that's probably the case. (I hope not tho)